Economists at Commerzbank analyze the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate expectations and its implications for the Euro (EUR).
The first interest rate cut will not come in the spring after all
An economic silver lining on the horizon, combined with an ECB that is probably not yet satisfied with the wage trend, as it can make further successes in inflation much more difficult, are good reasons to assume that the first interest rate cut will not come in the spring after all. Especially as the ECB will have significantly more data at its June meeting, especially really reliable data on wage trends.
Even if there are no longer many who are hoping for April, they could eventually conclude that a cut in April is unlikely, despite all the successes with inflation so far. This in turn could give the Euro a helping hand, meaning that EUR/USD could move closer to the 1.0900 mark over the course of the we
ek.
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