Strategists at ANZ Bank analyze the global liquified natural gas (LNG) outlook. Risks remain skewed to fundamentals becoming tighter this year, they say.

Risks of disruptions to supply remain elevated

We still see upside risks to prices. Europe can rest on its laurels and must boost LNG imports even further. China’s demand may exceed expectations amid an increasing focus on energy efficiency and emissions. India looks poised to become the world’s fourth largest importer of LNG, as its energy transition accelerates.

Risks of disruptions to supply also remain elevated. European sanctions on Russian LNG shipments are under consideration, while tensions in the Middle East are causing major obstacles to trade flows. These factors should provide a floor to prices, with further upside dependent on their severity.