The second-best performing currency after the US Dollar (USD) of 2024 is the Pound Sterling (GBP). Economists at ING analyze the GBP outlook.

UK services inflation and wage growth should remain sticky

On Tuesday, jobs data for January is released, and Wednesday sees the CPI report and Thursday's GDP data. We see both wage growth and services inflation remaining sticky in the first quarter, meaning that the Bank of England will have no rush to turn to a more dovish communication in the near future.

Markets are expecting the BoE to move with a delay (in August) compared to the ECB’s and Fed’s easing cycles. We agree, but also see 100 bps (vs 80 bps priced in) of cuts by year-end.

Some GBP weakness against the EUR down the road is therefore our base case, but the short-term outlook remains quite constructive for Sterling.