EUR/USD PRICE ANALYSIS: SEEMS VULNERABLE WHILE BELOW 100-DAY SMA, 1.0800 MARK

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  • EUR/USD snaps a three-day winning streak, albeit lacks any follow-through selling.
  • The Fed rate cut uncertainty keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support.
  • The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for deeper losses.

The EUR/USD pair continues with its struggle to make it through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier and meets with some supply during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0770 area, down just over 0.05% for the day, and for now, seem to have stalled this week's recovery from the lowest level in almost three months.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to be underpinned by the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer in the wake of a still-resilient US economy. Apart from this, expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates at the start of the second quarter act as a headwind for the shared currency and exert some downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

That said, the uncertainty about the likely timing and pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Moreover, the prevalent risk-on environment contributes to keeping a lid on any further appreciating move for the safe-haven Greenback. This, in turn, could lend some support to the EUR/USD pair and help limit deeper losses in the absence of any relevant macro data


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