Donald Trump has at least a good chance of a second term in office. Forward-looking politics should prepare for this, strategists at Commerzbank report.

It cannot be said that there would be a U-turn in US policy under Trump

Under President Trump, the Americans are unlikely to continue to support Ukraine to the current extent. The Europeans will therefore have to shoulder a greater burden. This also applies to defense spending as a whole. The US position here is likely to be that it is primarily the responsibility of the European NATO members to invest sufficiently in protection against Russia. The pressure to raise defense budgets will continue to increase. So far, many countries have struggled to even reach NATO's 2% target.

Donald Trump's preference for a robust foreign trade policy based on tariffs, among other things, could lead to a resurgence of trade disputes between the US and the EU.

However, it cannot be said that there would be a U-turn in US policy under Trump. Rather, he would probably only accelerate trends that are already in place; a certain move away from Europe and an increased US focus on the Asian region is to be expected with any future administration. The same applies to the push for more protectionism. This enjoys broad bipartisan support. However, President Trump would probably ensure that Europeans can no longer turn a blind eye to these developments.