BOE’S MANN: I WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF OVER-TIGHTENING

Catherine Mann, member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, said on Monday that overtightening is easier to fix than not moving interest rates. She added that underestimating the persistence of inflation will lead to overshoot. 

Mann delivered a speech at the Canadian Association for Business Economics.  She explained that the idea that 3% inflation is close enough can not be the guide for the BoE. 

Key takeaways from the speech: 

To pause or to hold the policy rate lower for longer risks inflation becoming more deeply embedded, which would then require more tightening in total, to both change inflation itself and to wring-out the embedded inflation that comes from the sustained duration above target. This is why I would rather err on the side of over-tightening. But, if I am wrong, and inflation decelerates more quickly and activity deteriorates more significantly, I will not hesitate to cut rates.

It’s a risky bet that inflation expectations are sufficiently well-anchored and to wait for core inflation to ease down, as this extends the duration way above the target-consistent rate. We need to prepare for a world where inflation is more likely to be volatile in the future, and the neutral nominal rate is likely to be higher than in the past. While these might support a “3% inflation is close enough”, popular in some circles, it cannot be our guide. We need to communicate and act on our commitment to do what is necessary to achieve the 2% target, sooner rather than later