Current trend

Amid the depreciation of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is correcting around 0.6471.

After the Australian report on July retail sales, which showed an increase of 0.5% from a decline of 0.8% earlier, today’s real estate market data disappointed investors. Thus, the number of building permits corrected by –8.1% after –7.9% a month earlier, worse than the same indicator a year earlier. The index of completed works in the second quarter increased only by 0.4% from a 3.8% increase in the first quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the recovery of the sector.

The US dollar was trading above 104.000 in the USD Index yesterday but now it is developing negative dynamics amid the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the Conference Board consumer confidence index fell from 114.0 points to 106.1 points, although analysts expected growth to 116.0 points. The July report from JOLTS on the number of open vacancies in the labor market showed a decrease from 9.165M to 8.827M compared to forecasts of 9.465M, which indicates difficulties for businesses and could cause another slowdown in the economy.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the global Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries 0.7000–0.6360, reversing near the support line.

Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming rising bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6660.

Support levels: 0.6430, 0.6280.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a reversal, growth, and consolidation of the price above 0.6500 with the target at 0.6600. Stop loss – 0.6450. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price drops and consolidates below 0.6430 with the target at 0.6280. Stop loss – 0.6500.