EUR/CHF has weakened since since mid-January. But downside momentum seems to be fading, economists at Citi report.
Has CHF hit its lows against EUR?
There are a number of reasons for CHF to underperform EUR over the medium-term, these being – (1) a wider EUR-CHF short rate differential in favor of EUR that may last well into 2024 as ECB likely lags most, including SNB, in any rate cut cycle; and (2) the ECB likely accelerating the pace of its balance sheet contraction relative to most other major central banks, including the SNB.
While the rates outlook likely favors EUR, the catalyst for a sustained decline in CHF against EUR would need a pickup in Euro area’s recovery that in turn looks towards a strengthening Chinese recovery. In this regard, stimulus policy measures by China following its Politburo meeting in July will be keenly watched.
It is entirely possible that CHF may have hit its lows vs. EUR at 0.9523 on July 27th and could find the 0.9500 level to be a solid barrier towards preventing further gains in CHF
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
