| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6000 |
| Take Profit | 0.6100 |
| Stop Loss | 0.5941 |
| Key Levels | 0.577, 0.5850, 0.5900, 0.5941, 0.6000, 0.6033, 0.6100, 0.6131 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.5940 |
| Take Profit | 0.5850 |
| Stop Loss | 0.5990 |
| Key Levels | 0.577, 0.5850, 0.5900, 0.5941, 0.6000, 0.6033, 0.6100, 0.6131 |
Current trend
The NZD/USD pair shows a slight decrease, consolidating near 0.5970. The day before, the instrument showed growth and managed to update local highs from August 16, supported by technical factors, as investors continue to cover short positions ahead of the annual Economic Policy Symposium of the US Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole. In addition, the pressure on the US currency increased with the publication of data on the business activity index for August: the Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.0 points to 47.0 points, and the Services PMI went down from 52.3 points to 51.0 points.
In turn, the instrument was significantly supported by macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Retail Sales in the second quarter fell by 1.0% after -1.6% in the previous quarter, while analysts had expected -2.6%. Retail Sales excluding Autos showed deterioration in dynamics from -1.6% to -1.8%, which also turned out to be significantly better than market forecasts at the level of -2.5%.
The focus of investors today, in addition to the start of the annual symposium of the US Federal Reserve, will be data on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders. Forecasts suggest a sharp decline of 4.0% after rising by 4.6% in the previous month, and orders excluding transport may slow down from 0.5% to 0.2%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is approaching its highs, indicating the risks of the New Zealand dollar being overbought in the near future.
Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6033, 0.6100, 0.6131.
Support levels: 0.5941, 0.5900, 0.5850, 0.5773.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6000 with the target of 0.6100. Stop-loss — 0.5941. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
The return of "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 0.5941 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 0.5850. Stop-loss — 0.5990.
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