Economists at ING analyze EUR/GBP outlook.

Volatile pricing ahead of PMIs

Bank of England rate expectations have been quite volatile since the upside surprise in wages and CPI last week. The miss in Retail Sales on Friday saw peak Bank rate expectations as measured in the Sonia rate drop more than 10 bps. Markets are currently looking at 5.95-6.0%, but today’s PMI release in the UK may well move pricing again.

EUR/GBP can make another attempt at breaking 0.8500 today, although the sustainability of sub-0.8500 levels is questionable unless markets price in more rate hikes in the UK or price out tightening in the Eurozone.