UOB Group’s Economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Junior Economist Agus Santoso comment on the latest release of GDP figures in Indonesia.
Key Takeaways
Indonesia’s 2Q23 GDP growth came in higher than expectation at 5.17% y/y or 3.86% q/q. The figure beat consensus forecast of 4.93% y/y and our forecast of just 4.8%, marking a back-to-back better-than-expected growth for the year and continuing optimism since the final quarter of last year.
Positive contribution from all expenditure components continued to underpin the growth momentum. For the past quarter, all expenditure components grew at a faster pace than previous quarter, except for exports and imports. Sectorwise, most grew faster in 2Q23, most notably transportation and accommodation which continued to accelerate in the last 6 quarters, consistent with the reopening that has undone all the pandemic mobility and activity restrictions. Robust growth in these two sectors were also in line with fast recovering tourism sectors that drove occupancy rate higher.
Indonesian economy continues to prove itself to be resilient amid rising global uncertainty, as it registered stronger than forecasted growth for two quarters in a row. Strong domestic consumption and earlier than expected rebound in government spending, as well as sustained expansion in investment expenditure in light of down-streaming efforts by the current government is likely to underpin another year of above-5% growth, yet again. We revise our GDP growth higher to 5.1% for 2023 from 4.9% previously on account of stronger-than-expected 1H23 GDP growth
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
