Economists at Nordea lean toward a weaker NOK after the CPI data release on Thursday.
Inflation is key
The NOK strengthened markedly at the beginning of July after the last NO CPI release came in hotter than expected while US and Euro Area CPI were a tad softer than expected. We don’t think we will see a repeat this week and we expect a somewhat weaker NOK after Thursday’s CPI data release.
Markets expect US inflation to pick up slightly to 3.3% YoY from 3.0%. More importantly, US core inflation is expected to fall to 4.7% YoY from 4.8%. If expectations are correct, markets could be relieved of a lower core figure and the USD could weaken somewhat.
A lower NOK print than feared and US inflation as expected points to a somewhat weaker NOK over the short-term. We still believe that EUR/NOK will take a turn higher in the months to come and hold our target at 11.50 until year-end.
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
