| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL LIMIT |
| Entry Point | 0.6115 |
| Take Profit | 0.6000 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6165 |
| Key Levels | 0.5860, 0.6000, 0.6115, 0.245, 0.6375 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6165 |
| Take Profit | 0.6245 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6125 |
| Key Levels | 0.5860, 0.6000, 0.6115, 0.245, 0.6375 |
Current trend
After unsuccessful attempts by the "bulls" to return the price to the level of 0.6115, the NZD/USD pair is correcting to 0.6000 amid a decrease in investor interest in risky assets, which, including the New Zealand dollar, are actively losing value against the US currency: the Australian dollar is down by 0.6% from the opening price of the week, gold – by 0.5%, and the New Zealand dollar – by 0.45%. Probably, the USD is trying to recoup the losses caused by the publication of negative statistics on the labor market last Friday.
At the same time, there are no prospects for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency at the moment: inflation is held at around 6.00%, despite the steps of the monetary authorities and a high interest rate of 5.50%. To offset the risks, investors are actively selling the currency, giving preference to the USD.
The long-term trend in the NZD/USD pair is downward. After unsuccessful attempts to return to the level of 0.6115, the price continued to decline with a target at 0.6000. If this level is broken down, the downward movement will intensify to the level of 0.5860. If, as a result of trading, the price breaks out the resistance level of 0.6115, then a correction will begin with a target at 0.6245.
The mid-term trend is downward. After the breakdown of the target zone 0.6231–0.6213 at the end of July, the next sales target is 0.6051–0.6033. In case of a breakdown, the downward dynamics will increase to the area of 0.5871–0.5853. The key resistance of the trend is shifting to 0.6257–0.6239, and if quotes reach this zone, bidders will have the opportunity to open short positions with the first target at the current week's minimum of 0.6061.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6115, 0.245, 0.6375.
Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5860.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from 0.6115 with a target at 0.6000 and stop-loss in the area of 0.6165. Implementation time: 9-12 days.
Long positions can be opened above 0.6165 with a target at 0.6245 and stop-loss in the area of 0.6125.
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