Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1930.00 Take Profit 1915.00 Stop Loss 1940.00 Key Levels 1907.55, 1915.00, 1923.06, 1930.00, 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55
Alternative scenario Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1946.80 Take Profit 1963.55 Stop Loss 1940.00 Key Levels 1907.55, 1915.00, 1923.06, 1930.00, 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55
Current trend
Quotes of the XAU/USD pair are correcting around 1936.97 after an uncertain attempt to resume the upward movement last Friday, when the US currency came under pressure after the publication of the July report on the labor market.
According to the data presented, the Average Hourly Earnings growth rate remained unchanged at 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, which was above market expectations of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively, while as the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, once again updating record lows. At the same time, the American economy created only 187.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, which also turned out to be lower than analysts' preliminary estimates of 200.0 thousand. Statistics on the labor market once again confirmed the opinion of experts about the future easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve; however, so far only maintaining the current level of the interest rate is discussed, while its possible reduction may occur no earlier than the beginning of next year. Moreover, the country's monetary authorities announced their readiness to adjust the rate if necessary, but at the moment the level of consumer prices in the US is assessed as quite acceptable.
Meanwhile, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold fell to 164.9 thousand compared to 173.6 thousand earlier, and the balance of swap dealers is 90.411 thousand for the "bulls" against 250.580 thousand for the "bears". Last week, sellers increased the number of contracts by 0.677 thousand, and buyers increased it by 3.818 thousand, confirming the preservation of an almost zero balance, which does not allow quotes to start a more active movement.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moderately declining. The price range is narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the short term. MACD maintains a relatively strong sell signal, being below the signal line, and Stochastic, having rebounded from the lows at the end of last week, shows a moderate increase, signaling in favor of the development of "bullish" dynamics in the near future.
Resistance levels: 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55.
Support levels: 1930.00, 1923.06, 1915.00, 1907.55.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1930.00 with the target at 1915.00. Stop-loss — 1940.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
The return of the "bullish" trend with the breakout of 1946.78 may become a signal to open long positions with the target at 1963.55. Stop-loss — 1940.00.
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1930.00 |
| Take Profit | 1915.00 |
| Stop Loss | 1940.00 |
| Key Levels | 1907.55, 1915.00, 1923.06, 1930.00, 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1946.80 |
| Take Profit | 1963.55 |
| Stop Loss | 1940.00 |
| Key Levels | 1907.55, 1915.00, 1923.06, 1930.00, 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55 |
Current trend
Quotes of the XAU/USD pair are correcting around 1936.97 after an uncertain attempt to resume the upward movement last Friday, when the US currency came under pressure after the publication of the July report on the labor market.
According to the data presented, the Average Hourly Earnings growth rate remained unchanged at 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, which was above market expectations of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively, while as the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, once again updating record lows. At the same time, the American economy created only 187.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, which also turned out to be lower than analysts' preliminary estimates of 200.0 thousand. Statistics on the labor market once again confirmed the opinion of experts about the future easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve; however, so far only maintaining the current level of the interest rate is discussed, while its possible reduction may occur no earlier than the beginning of next year. Moreover, the country's monetary authorities announced their readiness to adjust the rate if necessary, but at the moment the level of consumer prices in the US is assessed as quite acceptable.
Meanwhile, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold fell to 164.9 thousand compared to 173.6 thousand earlier, and the balance of swap dealers is 90.411 thousand for the "bulls" against 250.580 thousand for the "bears". Last week, sellers increased the number of contracts by 0.677 thousand, and buyers increased it by 3.818 thousand, confirming the preservation of an almost zero balance, which does not allow quotes to start a more active movement.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moderately declining. The price range is narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the short term. MACD maintains a relatively strong sell signal, being below the signal line, and Stochastic, having rebounded from the lows at the end of last week, shows a moderate increase, signaling in favor of the development of "bullish" dynamics in the near future.
Resistance levels: 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55.
Support levels: 1930.00, 1923.06, 1915.00, 1907.55.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1930.00 with the target at 1915.00. Stop-loss — 1940.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
The return of the "bullish" trend with the breakout of 1946.78 may become a signal to open long positions with the target at 1963.55. Stop-loss — 1940.00.
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