Scenario
Timeframe	Weekly
Recommendation	BUY STOP
Entry Point	83.30
Take Profit	88.10
Stop Loss	80.00
Key Levels	76.00, 80.10, 83.30, 88.10

Alternative scenario
Recommendation	SELL STOP
Entry Point	80.10
Take Profit	76.00
Stop Loss	82.00
Key Levels	76.00, 80.10, 83.30, 88.10

Current trend

The price of North American WTI Crude Oil is correcting in an uptrend at 81.80 amid the decision of OPEC to voluntarily reduce production from May until the end of the year in a total volume of about 1.66 million barrels per day, taking into account the share of Russia, which began to reduce production of 500.0 thousand barrels per day since March. This decision of the countries of the alliance was called a preventive measure to maintain market stability.

At the moment, Bloomberg experts predict a larger supply shortage of "black gold", which in the second half of the year can reach 1.2 million tons. Against this background, Russian Urals oil is in increasing demand from buyers, the price of which again set a historical record, reaching 64.3 dollars per barrel, exceeding the 60.0 dollars limit introduced by the European and Australian authorities, as well as the G7 countries after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.

In turn, this week, energy stocks in the US are once again breaking records of decline. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), the indicator fell by 15.400 million barrels, which is significantly lower than the expected reduction of 0.900 million barrels. Today the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy will be published: the indicator is predicted at the level of -1.367 million barrels. If the actual data indicates a significant reduction, one can expect continued growth in asset quotes on the market.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price marked an exit from the global channel with dynamic boundaries 60.00–76.00 and is now holding above the resistance line.

Technical indicators are rising, holding a stable buy signal: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator keep the fluctuation range directed upwards, and the AO histogram is forming new ascending bars, rising in the buying zone.

Support levels: 80.10, 76.00.

Resistance levels: 83.30, 88.10.

Trading tips

If the asset continues growing and the price consolidates above the local resistance level of 83.30, long positions will be relevant with target at 88.10. Stop-loss — 80.00. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

If the asset continues local decline and the price consolidates below the local support level at 80.10, short positions can be opened with the target at 76.00. Stop-loss — 82.00.