The USD/TRY pair has been stuck in an unnaturally narrow range near the 26.95 mark since after the last central bank meeting (on 20 July). Economists at Commerzbank analyze Lira's outlook.
Volatility of the Lia abruptly evaporated
The price action of the past week strongly resembles what we had witnessed during the preceding era of FX intervention and Lira support by local banks (at the cost of their own balance sheets). This seems to be the only explanation for why volatility of the TRY abruptly evaporated.
As in the past, such FX intervention inevitably destroys FX reserves and proves to be unsustainable, after which things lead to equally strong volatility down the road. We have to get prepared once again.
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
