Current trend

The USD/CHF pair has been actively declining since the beginning of this month, trading around 0.8600.

After the publication of June statistics on the US labor market, which showed a significant slowdown in employment growth, and inflation data that confirmed its decline, the US currency began to actively lose ground. Experts believe that the sufficient effect of the increase in the interest rate of the US Fed has already been achieved, and in the second half of the year the regulator will move to keep the value at the current level. The monetary authorities expect two more increases in the cost of borrowing, but also confirm some progress in the fight against rising consumer prices.

In turn, the Swiss economy currently looks quite confident, supporting the national currency: the country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% in Q1 instead of the expected 0.1%, and the indicator added 0.6% year-on-year. At the same time, the consumer price index in June fell below the target mark, to 1.7% year-on-year, and the producer price index – to -0.6%. The USD/CHF pair may continue its downward trend in the mid-term.

Support and resistance

The instrument continues to trade within the descending channel and in the near future may continue to decline along its lower border to 0.8422 (Murray level [-2/8], H4) and 0.8360 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). The key for the "bulls" is the level 0.8789 (Murray level [0/8]), the breakout of which will ensure the continuation of price growth to the levels 0.8911 (Murray level [1/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), 0.9033 (Murray level [2/8]) and 0.9155 (Murray level [3/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%).

Technical indicators point out the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD is increasing in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is in the oversold zone, but it is directed horizontally.

Resistance levels: 0.8789, 0.8911, 0.9033, 0.9155.

Support levels: 0.8544, 0.8422, 0.8360.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below 0.8544 with targets at 0.8422, 0.8360 and stop-loss at 0.8660. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 0.8789 with targets at 0.8911, 0.9033, 0.9155 and stop-loss at 0.8710.