WTI oil futures (August delivery) have been gently crawling up over the past week following the close below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the drop to a six-month low of $87.00/barrel.
The price is currently looking to return above the $92.19 constraining zone, which was the lower boundary of the previous range area, but this will not be enough to boost buying confidence. The bulls will also need to climb above the 20- and 200-day SMAs, which are trying to set a bearish cross near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend around $95.00. The descending trendline drawn from the $120.87 peak could further cement that wall, blocking the way towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of $99.94 and the $102.00 barrier, where the 50-day SMA is currently residing.
The positive momentum in the RSI and the MACD, as well as the upside reversal in the stochastics is reflecting some improvement in market sentiment, though as long as the two former remain in the bearish area, downside corrections are possible. In this case, the price could diminish back to the $87.00 low if the $92.19 zone rejects any additional bullish movements. Lower, the bears will aim to downgrade the long-term outlook back to neutral below $85.00. If they succeed, the sell-off could pick up steam towards the $80.85 – $79.00 region.
In brief, WTI oil futures may attempt to extend their recovery in the coming sessions, though only a decisive close above $95.00 could attract fresh buying interest.
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