ECB is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today. But with inflation at a record high of 7.5%, the central bank is also expected to sing a more hawkish tune. There should be an announcement to put a firm end date to the asset purchase program. Interest rate hike will only come “some time” after ending the purchases.
There are talks that putting an end date to asset purchases in June would open up the possibility of a rate hike in September, followed by another in December. But President Christine Lagarde will certainly continue to sound non-committal, but emphasize the importance of graduality, optionality and flexibility for the policy path ahead.
Here are some previews on ECB:
- ECB Preview: Policy Under a Cloud of Uncertainties
- ECB Preview: No Policy Adjustments Expected
- ECB ‘Half Measures’ Unlikely to Stop Euro’s Bleeding
- ECB Preview – Lagarde to Bring September into Play – We Revise Our ECB Call
EUR/CHF’s reaction to ECB decision and press conference is worth some attention. So far, the decline from 1.0400 is not impulsive looking. The cross has also started to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. A break above 1.0204 minor resistance today will suggest that such pull back is finished. More importantly, in this case, rebound from 0.9970 is likely ready to resume through 1.0400. That, if happens, could give Euro a helping hand elsewhere.
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
