GBP/USD’s break of 1.3119 minor support argues that corrective rebound from 1.2999 has completed at 1.3297 already. Failure to hit 55 day EMA keeps near term outlook bearish. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2999 low first. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.4248. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2900, and then 100% projection at 1.2655. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3297 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.
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