EUR/AUD rebounded strongly after dipping to 1.4561, but upside is limited below 1.5354 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is still expected. On the downside, below 1.4789 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. However, sustained break of 1.5354 will bring further rise back towards 1.6623 resistance.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).
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