EURUSD opened with a negative gap near January’s low of 1.1120 on Monday as the world is eagerly awaiting the crucial Russian – Ukrainian meeting.
Despite last week’s volatile session, the 1.1100 territory continues to feed buying appetite, with the price currently pushing to recoup today’s lost ground. The fast Stochastics seem to have created a sort of a double bottom formation around their 20 oversold level, endorsing the recovery mood in the market, though the indicator has yet to print fresh higher highs, whereas the RSI and the MACD are still moving southwards. Hence, overall, the short-term outlook is still looking cloudy.
In terms of market trend, the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) managed to remain flat despite last week’s sell-off, reducing the risk for a significant outlook deterioration. Besides, as long as the 2008 descending trendline, currently at 1.1093, keeps supporting the market, the pair could still stage a brief corrective rally. If the price returns above 1.1180, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0636 – 1.2348 upleg, today’s upturn could extend towards the 1.1265 restrictive region, while higher, the bulls may attempt to breach the 1.1300 – 1.1326 zone and head to claim the key 1.1370 – 1.1400 territory.
Alternatively, if sellers press sustainably the price below 1.1100, the door will open for the 78.6% Fibonacci and the 1.1000 mark. Another collapse here may squeeze the price directly to 1.0870.
Summarizing, EURUSD seems to be standing on moving sand. For the sellers to take full control, the price will need to dip decisively below 1.1100. On the upside, an outlook upgrade above 1.1492 could be a tougher task to achieve in the short term.
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