The markets are overall relatively quietly in Asian session today and trading could be subdued with US on holiday. Canadian Dollar is resilient with WTI oil staying firm at around 84 handle. Euro and Dollar are both strengthening notably. On the other hand, Yen, Aussie and Kiwi are softening. In particular, traders seem to be lightening up Yen positions ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ policy decision and statement.
Technically, while the selloff in USD/JPY was steep last week, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are staying in consolidative range only. In particular, GBP/JPY is holding comfortably above 154.86 minor support. We’ll turn our focus to 131.59 and 157.12 resistance in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY today. Break there will resume recent rally in both crosses. If that happens, we’ll see if EUR/USD and GBP/USD would break through corresponding levels at 1.1482 and 1.3748.
In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.77%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.59%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.59%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.08%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0044 at 0.155.
China GDP grew 4.0% yoy in Q4, weak retail sales
China GDP grew 4.0% yoy in Q4, much faster than expectation of 3.3% yoy. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.6% qoq, above expectation of 1.1% qoq. For 2021 as a whole, GDP grew 8.1%, slightly above expectation of 8.1%.
In December, industrial production rose 4.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.6%. Retail sales rose 1.7% yoy, below expectation of 3.7% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 4.9% ytd yoy, slightly above expectation of 4.8%.
The National Bureau of Statistics said, “we must be aware that the external environment is more complicated and uncertain, and the domestic economy is under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations.”
Also from China, steel production dropped for the first time in six years in 2021, down -3% from 1.065B tonnes to 1.03B tonnes. Birth rate dropped to a record low of 7.52 births per 1000 people in 2021, down from 2020’s 8.52 births per 1000 people.
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