USDJPY halted the pullback from the five-year high of 116.33 around the 115.00 level on Tuesday, but the close below the 115.50 – 115.25 region is still keeping downside risks alive in the market.
The technical picture is also warning that bears have some fuel in the tank as the MACD is stepping below its red signal line and the RSI is struggling to gain momentum after the dip below the overbought area.
Unless the price returns above 115.50, traders will keep staring at the descending trendline currently positioned around 114.40. A clear move below that line could immediately stall near the 114.00 mark and the surface of the Ichimoku cloud, which has been somewhat supportive early in December. Should sellers claim that zone too, the decline could stretch towards the key 113.20 number, while deeper, a move beneath November’s low of 112.52 would officially snap the almost four-month-old upward pattern.
In the bullish scenario, where the price rises comfortably above 115.50, the crucial 116.11 resistance could prove an obstacle, preventing an advance towards the 117.00 psychological mark and the 261.6% Fibonacci extension of the 115.88 – 112.52 down leg at 117.36.
Summarizing, despite yesterday’s stabilization, negative risks have not disappeared in the USDJPY market. A rebound above 115.50 could substantially reduce such risks. Otherwise, a bearish extension towards 114.40 could be possible.
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