ByLCMS Traders FX Analysis Team
JUL 5, 2021
1. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a strong nonfarm payroll report last Friday, showing that 850,000 jobs were added in June, higher than the forecasted figure of 725,000. As with the previous months, the main driver for the strong job gains is the leisure and hospitality sector. Unemployment rate inched higher as opposed to the forecast of a decline due to more people leaving their jobs voluntarily and a rise in the number of job seekers.
2. The OPEC+ meeting that was scheduled to take place on Thursday was delayed after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) blocked the deal as it wants its production baseline to increase from the current 3.2 million barrels-per-day (bpd) to 3.8 million bpd. Initially delayed to Friday, the meeting was then delayed further to today. At the moment, the OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 400,000 bpd from August to December. Finalisation of the oil output policy may take place today.
3. During one of his speech last Thursday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the importance of not over-reacting to the temporary strong growth and inflation in the UK at the moment. This is to prevent undermining the ongoing recovery by a premature tightening of monetary policy. This led to the weakening of the British pound as the market was previously expecting the recent spike in inflation may nudge the central bank towards tapering of quantitative easing.
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