FPG: U.S. PMI returns to the boom-bust line, gold plummets $10 Latest market news: 1. [The European Central Bank sends a signal to stop raising interest rates] Rennes, the ECB’s management committee, said that the central bank is close to reaching a policy stance to restrict the economy and may complete the interest rate hike this summer. Comment: Europe can‘t increase. After all, the economy is not as resilient as the United States. 2. [Deutsche Bundesbank: The economic outlook is improving, and overall inflation has peaked] The Deutsche Bank of Germany said that Germany’s economic outlook is improving and the overall inflation rate has peaked after the unexpected resilience in the fourth quarter, although the rise in basic prices will take longer to ease. The central bank added that wages are now growing rapidly, causing a second wave of inflationary pressure, which will slow down the overall inflation reduction process. Comments: Recently, low prices of natural gas have made Europe and Germany much easier. Europe‘s inflation core still depends on the source price 3. [US PMI returns to above the boom and dry line] In February, the initial value of PMI in the Markit service industry in the United States recorded 50.5, returning to the top of the boom-bustion line, a new high since June 2022; Markit manufacturing PMI in February The value rose to 47.8, up from 46.9 in January and higher than economists expected by 47.4. Comments: The improvement of PMI data is definitely a good sign, but in the tight labor market, the upward driving force of inflation has now shifted to wages. The first improvement of the service industry may lead to concerns about the spiral of wages and prices. 4. [Serbia will insist on not imposing sanctions on Russia] On February 21, local time, Serbian President Vucic, who is visiting Abu Dhabi, said in an interview with the media that Serbia has its own policy, which is serious, responsible, independent and independent. It is the only European country insist on not on Russia. The country where Ross imposed sanctions. Comment: Serbia’s situation will become more and more difficult, and it seems that Vucic is also waiting for the node of the U.S. election. 5. [Meet between the Prime Minister of Ukraine and the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund] On the 20th local time, the General Reshmegarh of Ukraine and the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Georgieva held a meeting in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. The two sides discussed the financial support mechanism for Ukraine. Shmegarh said that Ukraine is expected to receive more than $15 billion in financial support from the International Monetary Fund. Comment: According to a previous report by the Russian Satellite News Agency, all humanitarian assistance has been used elsewhere, and the revenue has entered the pockets of some corrupt Ukrainian officials. 6. [US National Security Council] On February 21, local time, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council pointed out in a statement that the United States is still ready to meet with Russia to discuss the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The statement said, ”We are still ready to meet with Russia to discuss the treaty and nuclear stability“. ”No matter what happens in the world, the United States is ready to take key arms control measures.“ However, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was temporarily suspended in his State of the Union address to both houses of Parliament in Mosko on the 21st. Suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty signed with the United States. Comment: Previously, both Russia and the United States were avoiding direct conflict, but in 2023, the wrestling between Russia and the United States may be on the verge of direct military impetration. 7. [Inflation in Canada slowed down to 5.9%] Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.9% year-on-year, down from economists‘ expectations of 6.1% and 6.3% in December. Month-on-month, the index rose 0.5% in January, with an expected increase of 0.7%. The two key annual indexes closely tracked by the central bank, namely, the end-off average of the inflation rate and the core median, all fell slightly, averaging 5.05%, lower than the 5.25% after the revision of the previous month. Economists had previously expected 5.05%. Comments: Leave room for the central bank to suspend interest rate hikes. Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: According to the data, the initial value of PMI in the Markit service industry in the United States recorded 50.5 in February, returning to the boom-bustion line, a new high since June 2022. Despite the adverse factors of raising interest rates, as inflation peaked and the risk of recession subsided, enterprises were in good mood. Turn around. After the release of the data, the U.S. dollar index rose nearly 30 points in the short term, and spot gold fell more than $10 in the short term. The market focus is expected to return to the minutes of the January meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the revised gross domestic product (GDP) announced on Thursday, and the core individual consumer price index (PCE) released on Friday. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Crude oil: International oil prices have been sluggish since this year, and Russia’s production cuts have not led to the repair of market sentiment. The latest U.S. CPI data is worrying because it shows the risk of rising inflationary pressures. More precisely, this highlights that the fight against inflation is far from over. This weakened any expectations of investors for the Federal Reserve to relax its policy adjustment, and the interest rate hike panic triggered selling pressure across the oil market. Considering the global economic slowdown, it is expected that short-term oil prices will still have downside risks. Today‘s operation can adopt a short strategy, and the short-term goal below 74.5 Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Yen: Kuroda said that after the December adjustment, there is no need to further adjust the yield curve to control the target range of YCC. But he may be aware of some changing market expectations and the risk that the new president faces an embarrassing start. Because it is foreseeable that if the March meeting does not make any adjustments as expected, it means that Ueda will face great pressure from the market at the beginning of taking office, international speculators will increase the sell-off of treasury bonds to force the central bank to respond - whether and/or when the YCC will make adjustments. This will prevent Ueda from thinking about how to safely launch the 10-year ultra-loose monetary policy exit strategy. In terms of trading, it can be shorted today. The first objective below 134.5 The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex