NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Reps Higher into the Weekend

• The NASDAQ 100 has gained over 4% heading into the weekend, as traders completely ignore signs of inflation.
• At this point, Wall Street has convinced itself that because the Bank of Canada in the Reserve Bank of Australia have blinked, that the Federal Reserve is going to.
• Having said that, the ECB did not, so to extrapolate this is clearly hearing what you want to hear.

At this point, the 50-Day EMA sits just above, and it could very well cause some headaches. I think given enough time we will probably see this market show signs of exhaustion that we can start shorting, but right now it’s obvious that we are during a massive bear market rally. While these things can make you a lot of money, they also ended very abruptly, so they are very difficult and challenging to navigate. Because of this, I would be very cautious about my position sizing, but I also recognize that once the market suddenly makes up its mind, it could very well rip in one direction or the other.

Wait for Signs of Exhaustion to Short this Market

I suspect that the market will continue to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve and the statement on Wednesday, and I think there is very likely going to be a lot of disappointment. After all, Jerome Powell has given absolutely no indication that he’s worried about tight monetary policy. In fact, he has flat out said that he is more worried about inflation, meaning that the Federal Reserve will remain very tight with its monetary policy. If that’s going to be the case, it is not good for technology stocks.

Having said that, there was a bit of an oversold condition with Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon. Those stocks turning around enough goods in this market higher. Ultimately, this is a situation where a lot of people have jumped back in based upon “value”, but they may get waxed if they are not careful. The market continues to see a lot of trouble, and that should continue to keep volatility a bit high. As long as volatility is high, traders will not feel comfortable holding onto stocks for bigger moves. Quite frankly, I think this is a market that if you wait long enough, you will get a shorting opportunity on signs of exhaustion.

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