​EBC Markets Briefing | Mexican peso under pressure; UnitedHealth earnings beat

The Mexican peso hovered around its 6-momth high on Wednesday. Scepticism over Trump's announcement of an indefinite extension of a ceasefire with Iran lifted demand for the safe-haven ‌currency.

Mexico's economy is forecast to log a third consecutive year of growth under 2%, a Reuters poll found, held back by uncertainty over its trade deal with the US and Canada.

Consensus forecasts for average annual inflation rose to 4.0% from 3.8% this year and to 3.8% from 3.7% in 2027. The country's central bank may end a long easing cycle in the current quarter.

The USMCA/CUSMA agreement is undergoing a mandatory joint review starting 1 July with key focus areas including automotive and steel tariffs, labour standards, and digital trade rules.

A ratification of the scheme or an inconclusive negotiation would be favoured, while a formal renegotiation would take a toll on business confidence in the manufacturing powerhouse.

Factory activity in March rebounded, signalling the slowest contraction in 5 months. Even so, new orders fell for the 5th straight month at a moderate pace as firms citied demand weakness.

The Mexican peso was firmly capped around 17.1 per dollar, setting it up for further declines. We see the next major support at 17.5 per dollar which was last hit in early February.

Asset recap

As of market close on 21 April, among EBC major products, UnitedHealth Group shares led gains. It posted Q1 earnings that topped estimates and hiked its 2026 profit outlook.

GE Aerospace reported better-than-expected Q1 financial results, but margin pressure, softer outlook assumptions for aircraft departures growth, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty dragged down the shares.

Gold tumbles over 2% as stalled Iran talks lift the dollar. Standard Chartered sees gold prices averaging around $4,605 in Q2, with prices rising to an average of $4,850 by Q3.

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