Goldman Sachs strategists believe the factors supporting the US dollar's strength over the past decade are reinforced, but the upcoming US election could significantly impact its future trajectory. A Republican sweep may trigger stronger dollar gains through tariff hikes and tax cuts, while a divided Republican government would see a smaller rally. In contrast, a Democratic government may lead to an initial dollar decline due to tariff changes.
Currencies like the Mexican Peso, Chinese Yuan, Euro, South Korean Won, and Australian Dollar could benefit from policy shifts. The Chinese Yuan may weaken further under increased US tariffs. While there are upside risks for the dollar, the outcome could be affected by China's economic stimulus.
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