ECB policy decision is due today (815pm SG time) followed by Lagarde’s press conference (845pm SGT). Softer CPI prints out of Euro-area, Germany and Spain and softer mfg PMI readings added to expectation that ECB should be on course to lower rate again, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Rate cut decision is more or less a done deal

“Markets have priced in 25bp cut at this meeting and about 38bp cut for remainder of the year (another 1.5 cut). While a rate cut decision is more or less a done deal, focus is on Lagarde’s press conference and staff macroeconomic projection. So far, ECB officials have not been outright dovish, and officials seemed to posture for a more gradual pace when it comes to policy easing.”