• German HICP inflation falls to 2%, increasing the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
• ECB expected to lower rates by 25 bps while maintaining a restrictive policy stance to combat inflation risks.
• US CPI data could influence Fed rate expectations, with a 70% chance of a 25 bps cut and 30% for a 50 bps cut.

The EUR/USD retreated on Tuesday after the latest inflation report in Germany, which increased the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1021, virtually unchanged, as Wednesday’s Asian session begins.

EUR/USD retreats to 1.1021 as lower German inflation fuels expectations of a 25 bps ECB rate cut on Thursday

Wall Street ended the session with decent gains, while the Greenback is almost flat. Data during the European session witnessed German inflation falling to its lowest level in over three years as the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) hit 2%, the ECB’s goal.

On Thursday, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, yet according to analysts at BBH, the central bank would emphasize that “it will keep policy sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary."

Besides that, the ECB is expected to update its economic projections, which include a downward revision of economic growth and inflation. Money market traders continue to price in 50 to 75 basis points of cuts toward the end of the year.