Current trend

One of the leading US indices NQ 100 is demonstrating a downtrend around 18600.0 amid an unstable macroeconomic background.

Investors are monitoring forecasts regarding the US Federal Reserve's further steps in monetary policy. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the interest rate at the September meeting is 71.0%, and by 50 basis points – only 29.0%. Recently, analysts' estimates have changed, and now they expect a smoother adjustment of the indicator, which is most likely already priced into current market quotes and will have almost no effect on the dynamics of dollar assets.

In turn, the situation on the bond market continues to develop in a downtrend, which in the future may support the index quotes. Thus, yesterday, auctions were held to place short-term treasury bills: the rate on three-month securities fell to 4.895% from 4.970%, and on six-month ones – to 4.530% from 4.645%. A similar trend is observed in longer-term debt securities: so, the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 3.708% from 3.799%, 20-year bonds – to 4.082% from 4.143%, and 30-year bonds – to 4.000%, the minimum value since the end of December.

The leaders of growth in the index are Arm Holdings ADR ( 7.03%), Super Micro Computer Inc. ( 6.06%), Moderna Inc. ( 5.14%), Monster Beverage Corp. ( 4.30%).

Among the leaders of decline are AstraZeneca Plc. ADR (˗2.60%), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (˗2.07%), Alphabet Inc. Class C (˗1.70%).

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, the index quotes are correcting, moving further and further away from the annual highs in the region of 20780.0.

Technical indicators have completely turned around and issued a new signal to start buying: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming new descending bars, falling into the sell zone.

Support levels: 18320.0, 17640.0.

Resistance levels: 18860.0, 19640.0.

Trading tips

In case of a reversal and continuation of the corrective decline, as well as consolidation of the price below the support level of 18320.0, sell positions with a target of 17640.0 will be relevant. Stop loss – 18700.0. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

In case of continued growth of the asset, as well as consolidation above the level of 18860.0, buy positions can be opened with a target of 19640.0. Stop loss – 18400.0.