Trader's View by KarimElBawab: My deep thinking on USD/JPY for September

Nickname: @KarimElBawab

Country: Egypt

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August 2024 saw a volatile period for the USD/JPY currency pair, with prices fluctuating significantly due to a combination of factors.

Key Factors Affecting USD/JPY:

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations: The market's anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September influenced the value of the US dollar. Lower interest rates generally weaken a currency, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere.

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan's continued monetary easing policy, including maintaining its yield curve control (YCC) program, supported the Japanese yen. This policy aims to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy.

US Economic Indicators: Mixed US economic data during August, such as employment figures and inflation reports, added to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.

Global Risk Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions and market volatility also played a role. When investors are risk-averse, they often seek safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen.

Expectations for September moves of USD/JPY:

Under the previous circumstances, the trade range would be large. The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate. On the other side, BOJ is not crystal clear whether it will continue hiking the interest rate or will still keep the easing policy with little hikes every few months.

The major resistance levels that I will use to short USD/JPY are 152 and 151 levels, I am gonna get long around 136, 138, and 139 levels.

Keep in mind that managing your equity should be wise because these are wide levels. Setting a tight or wide stop loss should be done based on your trading strategy.