Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is trading in a correction trend, holding around 0.8620 during the morning session. The franc strengthens with the support of macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, according to the report of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Q2 growth of the secondary sector of the economy amounted to 6.4% compared to the same period a year earlier, and turnover – by 4.7%, reaching a high figure since 2021. Compared to last year’s data, industrial production accelerated by 8.0% in April, 8.6% in May, 5.6% in June, and 7.3% QoQ. Positive dynamics are also observed in construction: turnover has adjusted by 1.6%, and the subsector that showed the most rapid growth was civil construction (13.1%). Thus, a recovery in business activity in these industries is expected soon, which may have a positive effect on the franc.

The US currency continues the downward dynamics, currently trading at 101.8 points in USDX amid expectations for the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, which starts on Thursday, August 22, where forecasts for the development of the global economy may be announced. In the meantime, investors are focusing on the latest comments from US Fed officials, which signal the possibility of the first easing of monetary policy at the September meeting. Thus, yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, told the Financial Times that it was time to consider the issue of adjusting the cost of borrowing, emphasizing that the national labor market, although slowing, still does not look weak. Today, market participants will pay attention to the speech of the member of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Fed System (FOMC) Raphael Bostic, who, as a rule, quite accurately assesses the prospects for monetary policy. Among the macroeconomic factors that put pressure on the dollar, one can single out the index of leading economic indicators: the indicator continued its negative dynamics from –0.2% to –0.6%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price of the trading instrument is again moving away from the resistance line of the downward channel 0.8910–0.8480. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are further and further from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram consolidates in the sell zone, forming correction bars.

Support levels: 0.8580, 0.8430.

Resistance levels: 0.8670, 0.8790.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price consolidates below the support level of 0.8580, with the target at 0.8430. Stop loss – 0.8660. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above the resistance level of 0.8670, with the target at 0.8790. Stop loss – 0.8600.