Economists at global investment giant Goldman Sachs have cut their probability of a recession in the United States within the next year to 20%, citing recent retail sales and unemployment data.
In an Aug. 17 report to its clients seen by Bloomberg, Goldman’s economist, led by Jan Hatzius, said the probability is down from their previous estimate of 25% and “would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year” if the US jobs report for August set to publish on Sept. 6 “looks reasonably good.”
The economists added that they were “more confident” that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 0.25% when it meets in September but said that “another downside jobs surprise on Sept. 6 could trigger” a 0.5% move.
US stocks surged in the past week on the back of July’s retail sales figures, beating analyst estimates in the biggest bump since early 2023. US Labor Department figures released Aug. 15 also show the number of people filing new unemployment benefit applications fell to a one-month low the week prior.
AUD/USD PRICE PREDICTION: BULLS RETAIN CONTROL NEAR FOUR-WEEK TOP, AWAIT MOVE BEYOND 0.6700
- AUD/USD scales higher for the third straight day and touches a fresh multi-week top on Monday.
- Fed rate cut bets, along with the RBA’s hawkish stance, remain supportive of the strong move up.
- The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
The AUD/USD pair sticks to its intraday gains through the early part of the European session and currently trades around the 0.6685 region, up over 0.25% for the day.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start its rate-cutting cycle in September drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since January This, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance, turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair for the third successive day.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, along with the recent breakout through the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the upside
Bulls, however, need to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 0.6700 handle before positioning for an extension of the recovery from the 0.6520-0.6515 area, or the YTD low touched earlier this month The AUD/USD pair might then climb to the 0.6745 intermediate hurdle before aiming to conquer the 0.6800 mark.
On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 0.6650 area, is likely to act as immediate support ahead of the 0.6600 mark, or the 200-day SMA resistance breakpoint. The latter should now act as a strong base, which if broken might prompt aggressive technical selling around the AUD/USD pair and pave deeper losses.
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