We have taken the weak demand data from China into account and lowered our oil price forecast for the end of the year by $5, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Expect Brent at $85 and WTI at $80

“We now expect a Brent oil price of $85 and a WTI price of $80 per barrel. This factors in a certain risk premium due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We also assume that the gradual withdrawal of voluntary production cuts by OPEC planned from October will be suspended at least until the end of the year. Otherwise, there would be a risk of oversupply and an undesirable fall in prices due to subdued demand in the fourth quarter.”

“However, OPEC has already partially ‘brought forward’ the planned increase in production from autumn. According to the IEA, the production volume in July was 920 thousand barrels per day above the agreed level because Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan produced significantly more than actually agreed.”

“OPEC oil production in July was also 250 thousand barrels per day higher than in June. Iraq and Kazakhstan were already producing more in July than would be permitted in September 2025, i.e. at the end of the gradual production increases. Production in Russia is currently at a level that should be reached only in March/April 2025.”