Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is rising around 1.0981: the euro is holding on in a correction trend just below its annual highs, taking advantage of the slowdown in the American dollar.

Given the EU macroeconomic statistics, the growth in the quotes may continue next week: in the second quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3%, meeting analysts’ forecasts, which was enough to accelerate the annual value from 0.4% to 0.6%. In addition, the industrial production indicator in June corrected from –0.9% to –0.1%. As a result, the euro is ending the week neutrally, and an increase in volatility in the EUR/USD pair is expected only in the event of changes in the American dollar.

The US currency is falling, trading at 102.70 in USDX. Initial jobless claims fell from 234.0K to 227.0K, while total claims fell from 1.871M to 1.864M. In addition, retail sales increased by 1.0% in July compared to –0.2% earlier, reducing the risks of a recession and supporting the dollar. In an interview with the Financial Times, Raphael Bostic, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that he is ready to consider starting to cut interest rates in September and added that the regulator should not be late in starting to ease monetary policy.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is trying to consolidate above the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.1000–1.0740.

Technical indicators maintain a buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars, rising in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1110.

Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0860.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.1010, with the target around 1.1110. Stop loss is 1.0960. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 1.0950, with the target at 1.0860. Stop loss is around 1.1010.