Current trend

Amid ambiguous macroeconomic data from New Zealand, volatility in the NZD/USD pair was low, with major players taking positions near the 0.6100 level.

The May services PMI fell from 46.6 to 43.0 against estimates of 47.5, causing the New Zealand dollar to test the 0.6100 support level but investors’ attention was still focused on the gross domestic product (GDP) data. The Q1 indicator increased by 0.2% QoQ, ahead of experts’ expectations of 0.0%, and by 0.3% YoY, better than estimates of 0.2%. However, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index has adjusted from 93.2 points to 82.2 points over the same period, as a result of which the NZD/USD pair reached 0.6147 and is currently trying to continue its upward trend.

The long-term trend remains upward but at the moment, a correction is developing, within which it tested the support level of 0.6100, where long positions, with the target at 0.6205 became relevant. After the breakout, an increase to 0.6262 and 0.6350 is expected. In case of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6100, the quotes will test the next support level of 0.6070, and then the downward trend will intensify to the region of 0.5992–0.5981.

The medium-term trend is upward but now a correction is developing to the trend support area of ​​0.6082–0.6068. After the test, long positions with the target at the June high of 0.6220 are relevant, and then in zone 3 (0.6286–0.6272). In case of a breakout of the 0.6082–0.6068 area, the decline will continue to the 0.5942–0.5928 marks.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6205, 0.6262, 0.6350.

Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.5990.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the 0.6100 level, with the target at 0.6205 and stop loss 0.6070. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6070, with the target at 0.5990 and stop loss 0.6100.