| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3608 |
| Take Profit | 1.3431 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3700 |
| Key Levels | 1.3431, 1.3608, 1.3733, 1.3891 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3733 |
| Take Profit | 1.3891 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3680 |
| Key Levels | 1.3431, 1.3608, 1.3733, 1.3891 |
Current trend
Amid the stabilization of the American currency and macroeconomic statistics from Canada, the USD/CAD pair is correcting at 1.3714.
The Q1 labor market vacancies decreased by 24.3K (–3.6%) to 648.6K for the seventh time after the peak of 2022 Q2. The number of vacancies for permanent work decreased by 24.5K (–4.5%), for full-time work – by 15.4K (–3.1%), and for part-time work – by 8.9K (–5.1%). However, the employment level remains stable, and the demand for labor changed by only –0.1%, compared to the previous quarter, supporting the national economy.
The American dollar stopped its sharp fluctuations and, for the second day, is holding near 105.00 in USDX. Investors are awaiting the publication of data on business activity and sales in the existing housing market. The May volume of started construction may increase from 1.36M to 1.37M, and the number of issued permits for the construction of buildings – from 1.44M to 1.45M.
Under these conditions, the continuation of the decline of the USD/CAD pair is the most likely scenario.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves in the final range between the first-order levels (I), correcting after crossing the left resistance of the second order (II) of 1.3714. If the decline continues, further dynamics will develop in a poor downward trend to the crossover of the right support of the third order (III) and the left support of the first order (I) of 1.3608 and then to the crossover of the left support of the third order (III) and the right support of the first order (I) of 1.3431.
A secondary scenario is growth to the cross of the right resistance of the first order (I) and the left resistance of the second order (II) of 1.3733, and then to the cross of the left resistance of the third order (III) and the right resistance of the third order (III) of 1.3891.
Resistance levels: 1.3733, 1.3891.
Support levels: 1.3608, 1.3431.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after the consolidation below 1.3608, with the target at 1.3431. Stop loss is 1.3700. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 1.3733, with the target at 1.3891. Stop loss is around 1.3680.
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