EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing flat dynamics, consolidating near 1.0735. Activity on the market remains quite low, since trading floors in the United States are closed due to the celebration of Juneteenth. Macroeconomic statistics from eurozone, published the day before, did not provide significant support for the instrument. Thus, the German Economic Sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in June adjusted from 47.1 points to 47.5 points with expectations at 50.0 points, and the Current Situation index dropped from –72.3 points to –73.8 points, contrary to forecasts of –65.0 points. In turn, the Consumer Price Index in the eurozone added 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, while the Core CPI added 0.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Today, investors will pay attention to April data on Construction Output in the eurozone, as well as a Monthly Report from the German Bundesbank, which may contain forecasts regarding future monetary policy in the region. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened slightly on the back of Industrial Production data: in May the figure increased by 0.9% after zero dynamics in April, while analysts expected 0.3%, and Retail Sales rose by 0.1% after – 0.2% a month earlier with preliminary estimates of 0.2%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, located around 1.2700. The focus of investors' attention today is on inflation statistics, which may influence the Bank of England's decision at tomorrow's meeting. Thus, the Consumer Price Index slowed down in annual terms from 2.3% to 2.0%, and in monthly terms it remained at 0.3%, contrary to forecasts of a possible acceleration to 0.4%. The Core CPI fell from 3.9% to 3.5%, fully meeting analysts' expectations, and the Retail Price Index went from 3.3% to 3.0% on an annual basis and from 0.5% to 0.4% in monthly terms. On Friday, June 21, the market will receive May Retail Sales data, as well as June business activity statistics. Retail Sales are projected to increase 1.5% in monthly terms after –2.3% in the previous month, and in annual terms they are expected to decrease by 0.9% after –2.7% previously. The Manufacturing PMI is likely to correct from 51.2 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 52.9 points to 53.0 points. In addition, similar statistics will be published in the United States on Friday: analysts expect that the Manufacturing PMI will decrease from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI may decline from 54.8 points to 53.3 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, correcting after an attempt to rise the day before, which led to the price retreating from the local lows of May 30. The instrument is testing 0.6130 for a breakdown, while traders are waiting for new drivers of movement. Data from New Zealand exerted some pressure on quotes on Wednesday: the Current Account - GDP Ratio fell by 6.8% in the first quarter after –6.9% in the previous period, and the balance of payments deficit decreased from –7.975 billion dollars to –4.359 billion dollars. The main trading floors in the United States are closed today due to the celebration of Juneteenth, so the attention of trading participants is gradually moving to the trading session on Thursday, when updated GDP data for the first quarter will arrive on the market in New Zealand: analysts expect zero dynamics in quarterly terms and weak growth of 0.2% year-on-year. In the US tomorrow, statistics on the housing market and the jobless claims will be published. It is predicted that the Housing Starts will increase from 1.36 million to 1.38 million, Initial Jobless Claims will decrease from 242.0 thousand to 235.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended June 7 may decrease from 1.82 million to 1.81 million.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading with near-zero dynamics, holding near 157.85 and local highs of the beginning of May, updated at the end of last week. Activity on the market remains subdued as investors are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of new drivers of movement. At the same time, sites in the United States are closed in connection with the celebration of Juneteenth, and investors continue to evaluate the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting last week, as a result of which the cost of borrowing was kept at 5.50%, and updated forecasts for interest rate dynamics were published. In 2024, the regulator expects the indicator to decline to 5.10%, which significantly exceeds March estimates of 4.60%. At the same time, officials are taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the transition to monetary easing, and the main scenario, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, still assumes the first interest rate cut in September. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published today, provided virtually no support to the yen: Exports in May added 13.5%, which was higher than the April dynamics of 8.3% and the forecasts at 13.0%, and Imports accelerated from 8.3% to 9.5% against expectations of 10.4%. Against this background, the trade deficit decreased from –465.6 billion yen to –1.221 billion yen.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair remained virtually unchanged during the morning session, remaining close to 2330.00. Market activity remains quite low, given that trading floors in the United States are closed to celebrate Juneteenth. Investors are still assessing the results of last week's US Federal Reserve meeting, where monetary policy parameters were left unchanged, but updated interest rate forecasts for the near and long term were presented. Thus, at the end of 2024, the regulator expects a decrease in the indicator from 5.50% to 5.10%, which significantly exceeds the March estimates of 4.60%. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that inflation has become "sticky" and the risks of its acceleration remain. In this regard, the official refused to name specific dates for the launch of the monetary policy easing program, and the markets left the main scenarios practically unchanged. One of them involves a two-time adjustment of borrowing costs by 25 basis points until the end of the year, starting in September. On Friday, June statistics on business activity will be published in the United States: it is expected that the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will drop from 51.3 points to 51.0 points, and the Services PMI — from 54.8 points to 53.3 points.