- EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0700 after discovering interim support near 1.0660 as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend upside above a six-week high of 105.80. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects modestly to near 105.50.
- The USD Index grinds between market speculation for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year due to resumed progress in the disinflation process and the Fed’s projection for only one rate cut amid fears of reacceleration in price pressures.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Fund Futures pricing data has firm expectations to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting and following suit again in the November or December meeting.
- After the Fed’s blackout period, policymakers advocate for only one rate cut this year, as they updated in the latest interest rate projections. On Friday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said that he was relieved after consumer and producer inflation data for May showed that price pressures were softer than expected. However, he wants to see similar data for months before lowering interest rates.
- Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the United States (US) monthly Retail Sales data for May, which will be published on Tuesday. The Retail Sales data, a close measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have increased by 0.3% after remaining flat in April.
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