- The Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance at the end of the June policy meeting, which continues to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar and is seen undermining the non-yielding Gold price.
- That said, weaker US consumer and producer prices data released last week indicated that inflation is subsiding, which keeps hopes alive for two Fed rate cuts in 2024, in September and in December.
- Adding to this, the Labor Department reported on Friday that US import prices unexpectedly declined for the first time in five months in May, providing another boost to the domestic inflation outlook.
- Furthermore, the University of Michigan survey showed that consumer sentiment touched its lowest level in seven months in June and the index fell to 65.6 from 69.1 in May, missing consensus estimates.
- Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester said on Friday that we are starting to see inflation move down again after stalling and that it is important not to wait too long to start cutting interest rates.
- Mester, in an interview with CNBC, added that she would like to see a longer run of good-looking inflation data and that the path towards the Fed's 2.0% inflation goal may take longer than expected.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that he still wants to see further progress on inflation and that if inflation behaves as it did in the first quarter, we will have a hard time cutting rates.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that we need to see more evidence to convince inflation is heading to 2% and that the central bank will wait until December to cut rates.
- This raises doubts about the Fed's rate-cut path, which might cap any meaningful appreciating move for the buck and lend some support to the XAU/USD amid geopolitical risks and political uncertainty.
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