From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been showing some resilience below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-February rally. The subsequent move up, however, struggled to find acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and faltered ahead of the 23.6% Fibo. level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding deep in the negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
That said, any further decline is likely to find some support near the overnight low, around the 147.25-147.20 area, ahead of the 147.00 mark and the 146.80 zone (38.2% Fibo.). This is closely followed by the 146.50-146.45 region, or the monthly trough, and the 200-day SMA, currently near the 146.30 region. Some follow-through selling, leading to a subsequent break below the 146.00 mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the USD/JPY pair to mid-145.00s (50% Fibo.) en route to the 145.00 psychological mark
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