Aussie Dollar on the defensive as US CPI surpasses forecasts, Fed rate cut estimates adjust

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that February’s inflation was slightly higher than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February exceeded estimates of 3.1% YoY as inflation printed 3.2% and above January’s 3.1%. Underlying inflation, as measured by the core CPI, stood at 3.8% YoY, down from 3.9%, but missed the consensus of 3.7%.

After the data, the AUD/USD extended its losses as US Treasury bond yields rose, underpinning the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of peers, gained 0.18%, up at 102.92, with buyers shy of reclaiming the 103.00 mark.

Following the US data release, the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders increased their bets for a 25-basis-point rate cut in June, down from 72% a day ago to 68%.

The Aussie’s economic docket on Tuesday featured NAB Business Conditions for February. Conditions improved from 6.0 to 10.0, while Business Confidence deteriorated from 1.0 to 0.0.

Ahead of the week, the Australian economic docket is empty, while in the US, it is not. US Retail Sales for February are expected to rise by 0.8% MoM, and the control group (used to calculate the Gross Domestic Product) at 0.4% MoM