The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is continuing to push back against financial markets' expectations of a central bank interest rate cut this year. RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway reaffirmed this stance during a live-streamed webinar, emphasizing that New Zealand still has a long way to go in the battle against domestic inflation.
He downplayed the weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the September quarter, suggesting that the slowdown was a result of high interest rates effectively slowing the economy and cooling inflation. He also noted that the GDP figures had been revised downward historically due to a change in methodology by Stats NZ.
However, Conway cautioned that this change in methodology did not necessarily indicate lower capacity pressures in the economy.
In its November monetary statement, the RBNZ indicated that no rate cuts are expected before the middle of 2025. However, financial markets have priced in at least two cuts this year, with the possibility of them happening as soon as May.
Conway further explained that non-tradable inflation in New Zealand has remained more persistent than tradable inflation. He attributed this to various factors unique to the country's economy, such as the trade-off between competition and scale in its markets. He highlighted that while competition is good for low prices and efficient businesses, scale allows larger businesses to be more productive and pass on low prices to consumers.
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
이 글이 마음에 드시나요? 작성자에게 팁을 보내 감사의 마음을 전하세요.
더 오래된 의견은 없습니다. 소파를 가장 먼저 잡으십시오.