Today, we present you a mid-term investment overview of the AUD/USD pair.

The positions of the Australian currency are seen as less stable compared to the US dollar, which can continue its global recovery at any moment.

At the beginning of the month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the interest rate at 4.10%, despite the fact that in the preliminary report the regulator repeatedly mentioned the possibility of raising it to 4.35%. The new RBA governor, Michele Bullock, noted that such a decision was made almost unanimously. Among the key factors in favor of keeping the rate value were the high level of inflation and low household spending compared to previous periods. In addition, the official said that another adjustment of the cost of borrowing may be required in the future to ensure that price growth returns to the target range below 2.0%. At that time, the RBA did not yet assume that the rising oil prices would again be under risk due to the escalation of the military conflict between Israel and Palestine. Commodity prices are one of the main components of inflation in the country and, if the fluctuation in oil and gas prices continues, the regulator will have to protect the economy by raising the interest rate, which, in turn, may weaken AUD.

The positions of the US dollar, despite the local decline, are still stable. The negative dynamics, according to experts, was provoked by technical reasons, not fundamental ones. The prospects for further growth of the US currency are still high, which is facilitated by the statements of US Federal Reserve officials who claim that the interest rate has most likely reached its limit and that in the future there will be a smooth transition to a policy of lowering it. The next meeting of the regulator will be held on November 1, and more than 83.0% of experts are confident that the cost of borrowing will remain at the level of 5.25%–5.50%, which will more accurately assess the effect of the monetary policy of the department. The national economy seems to have adapted to the current high value, and demonstrates local growth even in these conditions, which leaves room for maneuver for the Fed.

In addition to fundamental factors, the technical picture also shows a possible reversal and continuation of the decline of the AUD/USD pair in the near future: on the global W1 chart, the price continues to move along with the descending wave within the global descending corridor with the boundaries of 0.6770–0.5700.

Given that the price is between 0.6500 and 0.6300 for a long time, it can be assumed that the market is forming new sell positions. Key levels can be seen on the daily chart.

The key level for determining long-term dynamics is the minimum of October 3 at 0.6290, fixing below which will be a turning point in the current consolidation.

In the area of 0.6510, which coincides with the maximum of September 1, there is a zone of global cancellation of the sell signal. In the event of an increase in quotes, consolidation above the local maximum and the price reaching this zone, the global downward scenario will be canceled or significantly delayed in time, and sell positions can be liquidated.

In the area of the 0.5700 mark, which coincides with the support line of the global channel, there is a target zone; if the price reaches it, one may fix profits on open sell positions.

In more detail, trade entry levels can be evaluated on the H4 chart.

The entry level for a sell position is at 0.6290, and a local signal can be received this month. Technically, overcoming the local minimum of the beginning of October will be implemented, as well as consolidation below the local support level; after its breakdown, the necessary confirmation will be formed to open local sell positions.

Given the average daily volatility of the AUD/USD pair over the past month, which is 46.4 points, the movement of the price to the target zone of 0.5700 can take about 47 trading sessions; however, with increasing volatility in the instrument, this time can be reduced to 36 trading days.