地缘政治紧张局势和美元走软推动黄金升至两周高点 Geopolitical Tensions and Weaker Dollar Propel Gold to Two-Week Highs 2023/10/12

由于地缘政治紧张局势、债券收益率下降和美元走软，黄金价格从7个月低点反弹，达到两周高点。 最近黄金价值的飙升是由中东冲突推动的，使其成为首选的避险资产，加上美元贬值。 全球债券收益率下降也支撑着不收益率的贵金属。

尽管股市普遍乐观，但近期的复苏使黄金能够挽回9月份30%以上的损失。 有关美联储加息周期即将结束的猜测表明，黄金的上升轨迹。 然而，交易员正在等待北美时段晚些时候的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，以获得对美联储加息路径的新见解。

美国通胀压力的减少可能巩固美联储在11月维持现行政策的预期，可能导致2024年第二季度降息。 这种情况可能进一步削弱美元并推动黄金需求。 相反，强劲的CPI报告可能为美联储在年底前再次加息敞开大门，导致黄金多头重新考虑他们的立场。

黄金继续复苏，并试图突破1875-80阻力位，朝向1900目标。 今天的数据将决定方向。

The price of gold has rebounded from a seven-month low, reaching a two-week high amid geopolitical tensions, declining bond yields, and a weaker US dollar. The recent surge in gold's value is driven by Middle East conflicts, making it a preferred safe-haven asset, coupled with the depreciation of the US dollar. Falling global bond yields are also supporting the non-yielding precious metal.

The recent recovery has allowed gold to recoup over 30% of its September losses, despite a generally positive tone in equity markets. Speculations about the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle suggest an upward trajectory for gold. However, traders are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later in the North American session to gain fresh insights into the Fed's rate-hike path.

A decrease in US inflationary pressures could solidify expectations of the Fed maintaining its current policies in November, potentially leading to a rate cut in Q2 2024. This scenario could further weaken the US dollar and drive demand for gold. Conversely, a strong CPI report could keep the door open for another Fed rate hike by year-end, causing gold bulls to reconsider their positions.

Gold continues its recovery and tries to break the 1875-80 resistance level going toward the 1900 target. Today's data will dictate the direction.

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