Current trend

On October 6, statistics on the Canadian labor market were published: the change in employment in September was 63.8K, which exceeded the forecast of 20.0K and turned out to be better than the previous value of 39.9K, and the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 5.5% (with a forecast of 5.6%). As a result of the publication, the USD/CAD pair fell from a maximum of 1.3785 to the level of 1.3605.

The long-term trend in the instrument is downward, its border is at 1.3830. Last week, the USD/CAD pair broke through the resistance level of 1.3690, but failed to consolidate above it and returned under the sloping trend line. This week, the downward movement is likely to continue, which may be facilitated by the growth of construction permits in Canada. The data will be published on Wednesday, October 11. The target of the decline will be the support level of 1.3510, however, in the event of an increase in quotes and the price consolidating above 1.3690, the USD/CAD pair may strengthen to the level of 1.3830.

The medium-term trend is upward. Target zone 3 (1.3791–1.3768) was reached last week. After reaching the zone, long positions were closed, and the instrument went into a downward correction, within which the key trend support was reached in the area of 1.3579–1.3559. From this zone, one can consider new long positions with the target at last week's high of 1.3785.

If, as a result of trading, the area 1.3579–1.3559 is broken down, the medium-term trend will change to downward. In this case, the pair may decline to the target zone 2 (1.3379–1.3360).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3690, 1.3830, 1.3960.

Support levels: 1.3510, 1.3385, 1.3140.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3690 with the target at 1.3510 and stop loss near 1.3750. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3750 with the target at 1.3960 and stop loss at 1.3670.