NZD/USD is still below 0.60. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

Difficult to see USD exceptionalism being challenged

Price action has been very tame, as you’d expect ahead of key NFP report, and with US bond volatility easing.

It seems almost futile to discuss the strategic backdrop given that the next 1-2 cents in the Kiwi could be determined solely by US data if it surprises. However, when thinking about what might unseat USD exceptionalism, it’s not easy to come up with many candidates.

US bond yields are higher (so far, a USD positive), and could threaten stability and risk appetite, but so far there are no signs of that. And with the RBNZ outwardly comfortable, it’s hard to see things changing a lot (barring a US data surprise) for the Kiwi.