EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, holding near 1.0550. Last week, the single currency managed to strengthen slightly despite the fact that the instrument updated record lows from December 7, 2022. The reason for the weakening of the American currency was mainly technical factors, while the news background changed slightly. Trading participants are once again discussing the prospects for a possible tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, adjusting their forecasts after the publication of a report on the American labor market on Friday. Thus, in September, the national economy created 336.0 thousand new jobs after 227.0 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected 170.0 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8% with a forecast of 3.7%. Average Hourly Earnings added 0.2% in monthly terms, while experts expected 0.3%, and in annual terms the figure slowed down from 4.3% to 4.2% with neutral forecasts. This week, the market will focus on September statistics on consumer inflation in the US, which will be published on Thursday. Analyst forecasts suggest a slowdown in price growth from 0.6% to 0.3%. Market activity is likely to remain moderate today as US stock exchanges are closed for Columbus Day. In turn, the EU will present August statistics on Industrial Production in Germany, as well as data on the Eurozone Investor Confidence Index from Sentix for October, which was recorded at -21.5 points a month earlier.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is holding near 1.2200 amid the bank holidays in the US and Canadian markets. At the same time, trading participants continue to evaluate the September report on the American labor market, published on Friday, trying to predict the vector of the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. In September, the American economy managed to create 336.0 thousand new jobs, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts of 170.0 thousand, while in the previous month the figure was 227.0 thousand. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8%, while analysts expected 3.7%, and the Average Hourly Earnings added 0.2% in monthly terms and 4.2% in annual terms, which also turned out to be worse than the expected levels of 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively. After the publication of such heterogeneous data, the market revised its forecasts for a further increase in borrowing costs by the American regulator until the end of this year. Now about 42.0% of analysts are in favor of adjusting the interest rate by 25 basis points, while on Thursday the probability of such an outcome was estimated at 35.0%. At the same time, experts also expect that in 2024 the Fed will launch a rate reduction program somewhat later. In turn, macroeconomic data from the UK, presented on Friday, had virtually no impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The Halifax Housing Price Index in September decreased by 0.4% after -1.8% a month earlier with a forecast of -0.8%, and in quarterly terms the indicator decreased by 4.7% after -4.5%.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, correcting after a fairly strong rise at the end of last week. The instrument is testing 0.6350 for a breakdown, and trading participants expect new drivers to appear on the market. Trading activity remains quite low as US markets are closed to celebrate Columbus Day. At the same time, traders have at their disposal September statistics on the American labor market, which were published last Friday. The report reflected a sharp increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls from 227.0 thousand to 336.0 thousand, while analysts expected a decrease to 170.0 thousand. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, contrary to forecasts of 3.7%, and the Average Hourly Earnings adjusted from 4.3% to 4.2%. This week, investors will evaluate September consumer inflation statistics from the US and China. In monthly terms, the Consumer Price Index is expected to increase by 0.3% in both countries, and in annual terms, the figure in the United States is projected at 3.5-3.7%, while in China it is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows slight growth, remaining close to 149.15. Last week, the instrument showed the development of a moderate correction, retreating from the psychological barrier at 150.00. At the same time, on Friday the US dollar tried to return to growth, reacting to the publication of the September report on the American labor market, which reflected a sharp increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls from 227.0 thousand to 336.0 thousand, exceeding forecasts at 170.0 thousand. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8%, and the Average Hourly Earnings adjusted from 4.3% to 4.2%. The presented data led to a slight revision of forecasts regarding a further increase in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve until the end of this year. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan provided minor support to the yen. The Coincident Index in August rose from 114.2 points to 114.3 points, and the Leading Economic Index went up from 108.2 points to 109.5 points, exceeding forecasts at 109.0 points. At the same time, the Overall Household Spending in August decreased by 2.5% after -5.0% a month earlier, while analysts expected -4.3%, and the Labor Cash Earnings remained at 1.1%, while experts projected 1.5%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing quite active growth, testing 1850.00 for a breakout. The instrument opened trading with a positive upward gap and continues to develop the "bullish" signal formed at the end of last week. At the same time, gold almost completely ignores the September report on the US labor market, published on Friday. The US Department of Labor reported an increase in the Nonfarm Payrolls by 336.0 thousand, while analysts expected 170.0 thousand. Against this background, trading participants strengthened their forecasts regarding a possible increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate by the end of this year. The likelihood of another 25 basis point adjustment is now estimated at about 40.0%, after 29.0% last Thursday. The focus of investors' attention this week will be macroeconomic statistics from the EU and the US on the dynamics of consumer and producer inflation for September. Forecasts for the US data on a monthly basis suggest a slowdown in price growth from 0.6% to 0.3%, while the annual rate is expected to be 3.7%.